A year ago, regular gas cost $3.15 a gallon. Today it's $4.11, with drivers paying nearly a dollar more than they were last April after a run-up that has now stretched five days in a row.
The cause is sitting in the oil market, where Brent crude pushed past $106 this morning. Traders are racing to price in the risk of a wider supply shock after President Trump pulled U.S. negotiators from ceasefire talks with Iran.
Crude oil is the input that sets the price of gas, which is why the pump catches up within days when oil moves higher.
Iran reportedly improved its offer to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, in exchange for a pause on talks about its nuclear program. The White House said the offer wasn't enough, leaving the lane that carries about a fifth of the world's oil in limbo.
Markets price in risk before barrels stop moving, which is why the pump number is climbing even though no real disruption has hit U.S. supply yet. The fear alone is enough.
Hawaii leads the country at $5.66 a gallon, with Washington, D.C. at $4.30 and Connecticut at $4.22.
Vermont, New Jersey and Rhode Island are all sitting north of $4 as well, while only a handful of states still average under $3.75.
The bigger pain point: Diesel sits at $5.45 a gallon, which feeds into the cost of anything that arrives by truck. Higher diesel today usually shows up in grocery prices a few weeks later, so the pain stretches well past the gas station.
E85 ethanol is the lone bright spot at $3.21 a gallon, though that price only helps drivers who own a flex-fuel car.
Gas is the second-biggest line item in most household budgets, right behind housing. When pump prices rise, money for everything else shrinks, and that hits the consumer-facing stocks investors hold in their portfolios.
Energy stocks tend to move the other way, with higher crude lifting oil majors like Exxon and Chevron. Refiners and oilfield services names also benefit when drilling activity picks up.
The spread between consumer and energy stocks tends to widen the longer high gas prices stick around, which is the trade investors will be watching this week.
If Brent holds above $100, $4.20 a gallon isn't far away.
