Oil has had a wild two weeks. Monday was the wildest day yet.
When futures opened Sunday night, crude was already trading above $100 per barrel for the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. It kept climbing. WTI briefly touched $119.48 overnight — a roughly 32% spike in a matter of hours. The cause: Gulf Arab nations were cutting production because tankers had stopped moving through the Strait of Hormuz. With nowhere to send the oil, storage was filling up. Ships weren't willing to risk Iranian missile attacks to transit the waterway. Iran's foreign ministry made it worse Monday morning, warning that tankers in the Strait "must be very careful."
Two things happened in quick succession. First, the Financial Times reported that G7 finance ministers were meeting to discuss a coordinated release of strategic oil reserves — potentially covering more than 400 million barrels. Oil fell from $120 to around $110 on that headline alone.
Then, just after 3:15 p.m. ET, CBS News reporter Weijia Jiang posted on X that Trump told her in a phone interview: "I think the war is very complete, pretty much. They have no navy, no communications, they've got no Air Force." WTI fell another 6%, dropping to a session low near $83.89 before settling at $94.77.
Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research said it plainly: "This oil shock won't end until ships can sail freely through the Strait." G7 energy ministers were set to meet Tuesday morning. No reserve release was announced Monday — France said they're "not there yet." And after the close, Iran struck Bahrain's Bapco refinery for the second time in 24 hours.
Trump's words moved markets. The war isn't over yet.