On January 21, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump announced he would walk back the proposed 10% tariffs on eight European countries.
These tariffs were scheduled to increase to 25% on June 1. This announcement caused a surge in global markets, with major U.S. stock averages jumping significantly. Futures indicated that gains would continue on January 22, 2026.
The recent developments have revived discussions among investors about the "TACO" trade, which stands for "Trump Always Chickens Out."
This term reflects skepticism regarding Trump's trade policies, as he has a history of threatening tariffs only to back down later. Market watcher Russ Mould noted that Trump's behavior has led to a pattern where investors become cautious but optimistic when he retreats from aggressive stances.
Alan Siow, co-head of emerging market corporate debt at Ninety One, commented that while the TACO mindset has influenced recent market rallies, it remains uncertain whether this will lead to permanent changes in market behavior.
He pointed out that the rhetoric from global leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos indicates a potential shift in policy that could affect business and investment plans.
Despite the positive market response to Trump's conciliatory tone, analysts urge caution. Toni Meadows from BRI Wealth Management advised investors to wait for additional details about the Greenland deal and how Europe might respond.
He noted that while markets are recovering, they remain sensitive to Trump's future announcements.
The positive market response indicates a shift in sentiment, but analysts warn that future reactions to White House policies may still be volatile.
As traders digest the implications of the U.S. earnings season, they will closely monitor Trump's next moves and the potential impact on global markets. Meadows emphasized the importance of understanding that market reactions might only be temporary and that the broader implications of Trump's trade policies will unfold in time.
Investors should keep an eye on the developments surrounding Trump's Greenland deal and any subsequent announcements regarding tariffs.
The market's reaction to these events could influence the TACO trade's impact on global financial trends. As always, staying informed and prepared for shifts in policy will be critical for navigating the current market landscape.