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Farmers Need Fertilizer Right Now. The Strait of Hormuz Is in the Way.

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Published Mar 12, 2026
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A barren, cracked field under a bright sun, wilted crops, farmers beside bags labeled N, P, K spilling golden grains of fertilizer, an hourglass ticking down, and a distant mining facility near mountains by a river.
Summary:

  • Fertilizer prices have jumped roughly 30% since the Iran war began, with urea up nearly 44% at New Orleans ports.
  • Shares of CF Industries, Nutrien, and Mosaic are up 5% to 35% as supply disruptions hit at peak demand.
  • The Middle East supplies nearly half the world's urea and 30% of its ammonia — and spring planting starts now.

The Iran war hit the oil market first. It's hitting the food supply next.

Why Fertilizer Is Suddenly a Crisis

About one-third of globally traded fertilizer passes through the Strait of Hormuz. That includes roughly 49% of global urea exports and 30% of ammonia — both essential inputs for growing corn, wheat, and soybeans.

With the Strait effectively shut down, prices have surged. Urea at the Port of New Orleans jumped from around $475 per metric ton before the conflict to as high as $683 — a 44% spike in less than two weeks.

QatarEnergy has halted production at the world's largest single-site urea plant. India and Bangladesh have cut output as Gulf feedstock flows dried up.

The Worst Possible Timing

StoneX analyst Josh Linville put it plainly: "Literally, this could not happen at a worse time of the year."

Spring planting season is opening right now — the window when farmers buy the most fertilizer. Farmers who haven't pre-booked supplies are scrambling. Those who have are watching prices rise on the next order.

Morgan Stanley analyst Lisa De Neve warned that already tight nitrogen, phosphate, and potash markets going into peak season means the disruption could drive sustained price inflation — not just a short spike.

Who's Winning in the Stock Market

When fertilizer prices rise, domestic producers benefit. Shares of CF Industries, Nutrien, and Mosaic have surged 5% to 35% since January, making them among the market's strongest performers during the war.

The tradeoff: what's good for fertilizer stocks is bad for farmers. Corn prices remain near multi-year lows, meaning higher input costs hit margins that were already razor-thin going into 2026.

The American Farm Bureau Federation has already written the White House asking for naval escorts for fertilizer shipments — not just oil tankers.

Disclosure

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