The Iran war hit the oil market first. It's hitting the food supply next.
About one-third of globally traded fertilizer passes through the Strait of Hormuz. That includes roughly 49% of global urea exports and 30% of ammonia — both essential inputs for growing corn, wheat, and soybeans.
With the Strait effectively shut down, prices have surged. Urea at the Port of New Orleans jumped from around $475 per metric ton before the conflict to as high as $683 — a 44% spike in less than two weeks.
QatarEnergy has halted production at the world's largest single-site urea plant. India and Bangladesh have cut output as Gulf feedstock flows dried up.
StoneX analyst Josh Linville put it plainly: "Literally, this could not happen at a worse time of the year."
Spring planting season is opening right now — the window when farmers buy the most fertilizer. Farmers who haven't pre-booked supplies are scrambling. Those who have are watching prices rise on the next order.
Morgan Stanley analyst Lisa De Neve warned that already tight nitrogen, phosphate, and potash markets going into peak season means the disruption could drive sustained price inflation — not just a short spike.
When fertilizer prices rise, domestic producers benefit. Shares of CF Industries, Nutrien, and Mosaic have surged 5% to 35% since January, making them among the market's strongest performers during the war.
The tradeoff: what's good for fertilizer stocks is bad for farmers. Corn prices remain near multi-year lows, meaning higher input costs hit margins that were already razor-thin going into 2026.
The American Farm Bureau Federation has already written the White House asking for naval escorts for fertilizer shipments — not just oil tankers.