peace talks. Asia's stock markets are pricing in something the oil market hasn't: an end to the war. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index climbed 1.5% on Tuesday to hit its highest level in six weeks, capping a week that saw the benchmark gain 7.3% - its best stretch since November 2022. South Korea's KOSPI jumped 2.7% in a single session, adding to the region-wide rally.
China's CSI 300 became the latest index to fully erase all losses caused by the Iran conflict, joining Taiwan and Singapore in a full recovery. The rebound came despite the war's disruption to global energy markets, as investors look past the conflict and refocus on economic basics.
China's market held up better than most during the selloff, partly because the country had been building energy independence that shielded it from the worst of the oil shock.
A White House official told CNBC that a second round of talks between Washington and Tehran is under discussion, while President Trump signaled a willingness to restart talks. The diplomatic signals pushed oil below $100 a barrel, giving markets room to run.
The risk: markets have rallied on talk of talks before - and sold off just as fast when talks collapsed. The last round in Islamabad ended without an agreement and was followed right away by the Hormuz blockade. Hope is not a deal.
