For equity investors, the decline may signal that AI firms are losing pricing power as customers become more cost‑conscious - and that expectations of a future AI windfall could prove wrong.
"There are increasing reports that users of AI solutions, priced in tokens, are having to restrain unlimited use due to high costs," said veteran investor Louis Navellier. "The chatter that OpenAI is pushing back its IPO to next year is seen as a sign that, currently, profitability remains a problem."
A decline in the index does not necessarily indicate that AI costs are falling. The index combines prices and usage, so a dip can reflect several possibilities: changes in list prices, a shift in demand toward more affordable models, or an actual decrease in buyer willingness to pay. Cheaper tokens have broadened the market, meaning the index pause may be simple digestion - demand remains real and capex is well spent.
A UBS and Bloomberg chart shows the divergence between capex spenders and beneficiaries widening this year.
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For those with a bullish outlook, it's encouraging that the decline has halted. Calling a bottom after just one flat week is premature, but it keeps the rebound case alive. Nasdaq 100 Index futures rose 1.2% on Friday; US stock cash trading was closed for a holiday.
According to David Miller, a senior portfolio manager at Catalyst Funds, "During the training phase, the cost of AI infrastructure and token generation is extraordinarily high, but in the current inference stage, the economics are significantly better. "The net use of AI delivers a positive return on investment for companies, at least over the long term"."
Additionally, a newer demand‑side reason may keep the bearish interpretation alive. The US government this week lifted foreign access restrictions on Anthropic PBC's Fable 5 model, days after regulators asked OpenAI to stagger an upcoming product launch. Meanwhile, the EU's AI Act requires frontier models to undergo mandatory evaluations and meet strict transparency rules.
None of these directly cap prices, but they impose compliance burdens on top platforms that smaller yet capable systems avoid. This could give CFOs a rational excuse to shift workloads to cheaper models.
This is not a chip‑glut call. Top‑end GPUs and high‑bandwidth memory are sold out through 2026, with no real relief expected until 2028. The hardware signal is subtler: it indicates a shift in demand from high-end training GPUs to inference-optimized components.
However, "unbridled "market enthusiasm, intensifying competition from China and price sensitivity makes DWS strategists led by chief investment officer Vincenzo Vedda cautious". We are monitoring areas where valuations may look stretched," they said.
Ultimately, the token index can be interpreted in two opposing ways, and investors must consider both views. If, however, this signals that customers' maximum acceptable price has been reached, as regulatory pressures shift demand toward cheaper options, then the highest-priced segment of the market will be the first to suffer. The narrative revolves around pricing leverage, not hardware, and it is that this underwrites the path toward $1 trillion in capex by 2027.
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