The ceasefire sent bitcoin flying. The collapse of talks brought it back down.
Bitcoin ran from about $68,000 to a high of $73,000 in the days after the U.S. and Iran agreed to pause on April 8. The move wiped out nearly $600 million in short bets - traders who were banking on a drop got crushed.
Oil crashed more than 10% on the ceasefire news, and risk assets jumped across the board. Bitcoin got an extra boost from a short squeeze - when rising prices force bearish traders to buy back in, which pushes the price up even more.
The rally put bitcoin above its key moving averages for the first time in weeks. That same week, Morgan Stanley launched its spot Bitcoin ETF, pulling in $34 million on day one.
On April 12, Vice President Vance said the talks with Iran had failed. Trump followed by declaring a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Bitcoin dropped below $71,000.
The picture has shifted. Before the ceasefire, bitcoin was stuck under $70,000. The rally proved there are buyers above that line - but holding it needs calm on the world stage.
TD Cowen says bitcoin could hit $140,000 by late 2026 if things cool down. If they don't, $68,000 is the next floor. Right now, bitcoin is trading on headlines - not charts.
