He put investment-banking fees at roughly $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion, short of the near-$2 billion many analysts had in mind.
Moynihan told Bloomberg TV that equities trading is running higher so far in Q3, while fixed income is lower and choppy, a mix that points to overall trading revenue staying flat. He added that the Federal Reserve's meeting later this week on interest rates could help steady things: "Rates will settle at some point, and I think that'll help some of the trading activity," he said. "But on the debt financing side - which is a big part of the activity - the issue is that you've got to have a rate structure that's not bouncing around so people can feel comfortable that they can commit to issue into it."
Investors didn't wait for clarity from the Fed. Bank of America dropped as much as 6% after the remarks and was still off 5.9% by mid afternoon, the weakest name in the KBW Bank Index Monday. Peers slid too, with Goldman Sachs down about 4.1% and Morgan Stanley off 3.6%. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods pointed to a pullback in financing activity, partly tied to softer international and Asian prime brokerage balances.
Trading desks kicked off the year hot, with BofA's stock traders notching record revenue in the second quarter. But volatility has hung around. In July, the AI selloff rattled markets and disrupted Situational Awareness, the hedge fund led by Leopold Aschenbrenner; and more recently chipmakers have sagged after AI leaders floated slowing development.
Even so, Moynihan still sees the markets business putting up a strong 2024, with sales and trading pushing for a 17th straight quarter of growth. "We're in a dog fight for it," he said.
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On M&A, Moynihan said BofA hasn't been strongest in the industries that have been most active lately, though the pipeline is solid and more a matter of getting transactions completed. Wells Fargo's Mike Mayo wrote that focusing on the business mix rather than execution "continues the narrative that BAC has underperformed peers in capital markets."
Bottom line for your portfolio: steadier trading, lighter fee expectations, and a CEO upbeat on future interest income. If you own big-bank stocks or broad financial ETFs, shifts like these can sway earnings trajectories and the mood around the sector over the next few quarters.
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