Broadcom's stock has done in four trading days what most companies never do in a year. It added more than $280 billion in market value heading into earnings.
The stock closed Tuesday at $481.57, a penny above Wall Street's average 12-month price target of $480.56.
The analysts who cover Broadcom love it - 56 of 59 rate it a buy, and not one says sell. By their own math, the rally is already finished.
The four-day move caps a much longer rally. Broadcom is up 64% since hitting its 2026 low on March 30, making it the third-largest contributor to the S&P 500's gains this year, behind only Nvidia and Apple.
The whole chip sector is having a year for the record books. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is up 94% in 2026 and tracking its strongest year since 1999.
The fuel behind it: AI spending at a scale no industry has seen. Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, and Microsoft are expected to spend up to $725 billion on capital projects this year alone - much of that on chips.
We unpack what's actually driving the chip rally - and what could end it - every morning in Market Briefs, in five minutes a day, plus a free investing masterclass when you join.
The quarter itself looks great on paper, with Wall Street expecting Broadcom to post more than 47% revenue growth and 67% net income growth when it reports after the bell.
But the pace is set to ease. Revenue is expected to rise 62% in fiscal 2026, slow to 58% in 2027, then drop to 24% in 2028.
The price isn't built for that slowdown, with Broadcom trading at 32 times next year's expected earnings - nearly double its 10-year average of 18. By comparison, Nvidia trades at just 22.
Then there's the customer concentration: Alphabet alone accounts for nearly 13% of Broadcom's revenue.
That customer just announced a rare $80 billion equity raise on Tuesday - one of the biggest stock deals ever - raising fresh questions about how long the biggest tech buyers can keep writing checks this size.
Broadcom reports after the close, with the options market bracing for a swing of 7.8% in either direction - bigger than the stock's typical 5.3% average swing.
The setup is unusual: the bar is high, the analysts are unanimous, and the stock has already met their target.
Anything short of a near-perfect quarter gives investors a reason to lock in gains. The price target already arrived.
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