Gold hit a record near $5,600 an ounce in late January. Investors couldn't get enough.
Central banks were loading up. Rate cut bets were everywhere, and gold was the safety trade investors wanted.
That was five months ago.
Now the two biggest names on Wall Street are racing to cut their forecasts. Deutsche Bank just took an axe to its numbers - slashing its third-quarter target by 22% to $4,300 an ounce.
The fourth-quarter forecast dropped 17% to $4,800. Goldman Sachs got there first, trimming $500 off its year-end target last week. The new number: $4,900.
Both banks still think gold goes up from here. Prices are sitting just above $4,090 after a 2.4% drop on Tuesday. But the conviction is gone.
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The story that pushed gold to $5,600 was simple: the Fed would cut rates, the dollar would weaken, and gold would shine.
That story broke.
At its last meeting, the Fed held rates steady - but more officials are now signaling they'd support hiking instead of cutting. New Chairman Kevin Warsh made it clear: price stability is the priority. Strong economic data is backing him up.
"Fed repricing, together with resilient US macro data, has played the primary role in pushing gold lower," wrote Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Hsueh.
Gold doesn't pay interest. When rates stay high - or go higher - bonds and savings accounts look better by comparison. Money flows out.
Gold usually has three things holding it up: investors buying ETFs, Chinese imports, and central banks.
Two of those are crumbling.
ETF investors have been selling. Hsueh called the usual support from gold-backed funds "notably absent." In China, gold is trading at a discount to US prices - a signal that imports won't be the demand driver they've been in the past.
Central banks are the one pillar still standing. "We expect this to be the case for some time to come," Hsueh said. But one buyer isn't enough to hold up a market when everyone else is heading for the exit.
Deutsche Bank's fourth-quarter target of $4,800 assumes the Fed holds rates steady. If the central bank hikes three or four times instead, Hsueh says gold could drop to around $3,800.
That's another 7% down from here - and a long way from the $5,600 champagne days of January.
Silver is feeling it too. The cheaper metal dropped as much as 5% on Tuesday, amplifying gold's move as it tends to do.
For now, the safety trade isn't feeling very safe.
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