Americans are not feeling great about the economy right now, and the numbers back it up.
A new CNBC survey of 1,000 registered voters found that only 25% of voters said they feel optimistic.
The sour mood comes with a clear target for blame. President Trump's overall approval rating sits at 40%, with 59% disapproving. And the numbers on the war with Iran are even starker. 63% of voters disapprove of Trump's handling of that situation, while 35% approve.
"More voters expect things to get worse by a 41/29% margin, leaving the electorate in a distinctly sour mood heading into the midterm election cycle," said Micah Roberts, a partner with Public Opinion Strategies, the GOP polling firm for the survey.
This pessimism is showing up in how people spend their money.
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The pain is not spread evenly. Among households earning under $30,000 a year, 60% are trimming essentials. For those earning above $100,000, that number drops to 35%. So the pinch is hitting lower-income families hardest.
Why are people still tightening? High prices for food and other goods remain the core complaint. Gas prices have dropped recently, but not enough to make up for the sticker shock of the past two years. "When gas prices drop 50 cents for a month, that's just not enough to make up the difference," said Jay Campbell, a partner with Hart Research, a Democratic polling firm for the survey. "People are still paying a lot more for stuff than they were a year and a half ago, two years ago, and that's recent enough in memory that it still hurts."
The survey points toward the 2026 midterm elections, and the picture is mixed for Democrats.
Democrats hold a 4-point advantage over Republicans on which party should control Congress, unchanged from April. That is a lead, but not a big one. Campbell called it "not an overwhelming advantage" and said "it doesn't point to a wave at the moment."
The issues tell a more nuanced story. On "cost of food and groceries" - the most important issue for voters - Democrats lead by 7 points. On the second-most important issue, "protecting democracy," Democrats lead by 3 points.
On immigration and border security, Republicans have a 22-point edge, their largest lead among 10 issues. Democrats also lead by 6 points on housing and by 18 points on the cost of healthcare.
Some of the survey's most pronounced splits involve the war with Iran, which has seen a decline in support relative to the April survey. Only 48% of the public think the military action against Iran is worthwhile to stop the country from developing nuclear weapons, a drop from 53% in April. Fifty percent of the public say it is not worth it, an increase from 44% in the earlier survey.
The president's net approval rating for his handling of Iran dropped to -28, 3 points lower than in the previous survey. Some wings of the GOP rate Trump's Iran war handling negatively. Approval of Trump's Iran handling stands at only 47% among non-MAGA Republicans, who make up about a third of the GOP.
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