If it feels like the weather has been out of character, you are not imagining it. In a Thursday update, the US Climate Prediction Center said El Niño emerged in June and has been strengthening since. They track it by how much warmer than normal the equatorial Pacific's surface waters run. In a key monitoring zone, readings are currently 1.8C above average, or 3.24F.
The center said those waters could climb past 2.5C above normal, which would set a new record. The benchmark to surpass is 1982 to 1983, when readings hit 2.4C on the metric known as the relative oceanic Nino index (RONI). The warmer the Pacific, the more it can reshape atmospheric circulation and tilt weather patterns worldwide.
While it fuels a stretch of storms spanning the Pacific from Hawaii through China, Atlantic hurricane activity has been pushed to near-record lows not seen since 1941. On land, drought across Central America has choked the flow of ships in the Panama Canal, and blazes in Indonesia have driven palm oil prices higher. Together, these snags are feeding inflation and supply-chain pressure that the war in Iran has already made worse.
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Forecasters expect more turbulence in the months ahead: higher flood risk in California, drier conditions in parts of Australia, and hotter weather spanning India and southern Asia. For budgets and travel plans, that can translate into pricier food inputs like palm oil, shipping delays, and weather volatility that nudges everyday costs.
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