America bought less from the rest of the world in June.
But it is not a story of surging exports.
One interesting change: imports of capital goods - things like machinery and equipment - were still up 37.4% from a year ago. But they fell month over month for the first time since September. This indicates that businesses could be pausing after an extended investment spree linked to the expansion of artificial intelligence.
Meanwhile, wholesale inventories rose 0.3% from May and 4.4% from a year earlier. That is the strongest annual gain since 2023, a sign that businesses are stockpiling goods.
The drop in imports is not one simple thing. Several forces are at play.
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Companies have been importing heavily for the AI buildout, and that surge may have peaked for now. At the same time, supply-chain delays and the threat of new tariffs have pushed firms to stock up early.
Then there is the uncertainty from geopolitics. Renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities in July and new tariffs announced by President Donald Trump earlier this month are making it harder for businesses to plan.
Prices add another layer. In June, the cost of imported goods rose 0.3% even as export prices declined 0.6%. That means American companies paid a bit more for foreign goods while getting less for what they sell abroad. It is a small shift, but it can squeeze profits.
On the export side, the drop was broad. Industrial supplies - including crude oil and petroleum products - fell 4.4%. That happened even as demand for U.S. petroleum rose because of the Iran conflict, which suggests other factors like lower global demand or production issues may be at work.
This trade data is not just a historical note. The figures directly inform the first reading of second-quarter GDP, which the government will publish on Thursday.
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model already crunched the numbers. That is a meaningful drag.
More complete trade figures, including services and inflation-adjusted goods, are due on August 4. Those will give a fuller picture.
But for now, the trade side of the economy is not adding to growth. It is taking away.
The combination of falling capital-goods imports and rising inventories suggests that businesses are becoming more cautious about future demand, even as they continue to build stockpiles. This cautious stance, if sustained, could further dampen import volumes in the coming months and keep the trade deficit from widening rapidly, though the drag on GDP from net exports remains a near-term headwind.
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