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Meta Underspent On AI Last Quarter, Missed On Users, And Got Punished For It

Published Apr 30, 2026
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For two years, Meta's earnings story has been the same. Spend more on AI, get rewarded for it. On Wednesday, the company spent less than expected, and the stock dropped 7%.

The miss on user growth did not help. Meta said Q1 Daily Active People (DAP) fell more than 5% from the prior quarter, partly because of "internet disruptions in Iran" and restrictions on WhatsApp in Russia.

What Q1 Actually Showed

Meta beat on the headline numbers. Q1 EPS came in at $7.31 adjusted versus a $6.79 estimate, and revenue hit $56.31 billion versus $55.45 billion expected. Revenue grew 33% from $42.3 billion a year earlier, the fastest quarter for growth since 2021.

The catch was capex. The company reported $19.84 billion in capital spending versus a $27.57 billion average estimate. That is a big miss given how closely investors track Meta's AI infrastructure spend.

Meta tried to soften the underspend. The company raised its full-year capex range to $125 billion to $145 billion, up from a prior $115 billion to $135 billion, citing higher component pricing and additional data center costs.

Why The User Number Was A Problem

Meta reported Q1 Daily Active People of 3.56 billion. That is a 4% increase year over year, but a more than 5% drop from the fourth quarter. Wall Street was modeling 3.62 billion.

The company pointed to two specific factors: the war in Iran, where internet access has been disrupted, and a restriction on WhatsApp access in Russia. Both lowered active user counts in those regions.

Even with the explanation, a quarter-over-quarter drop in users is a flag for investors used to steady growth.

The Tax Benefit Inside The Earnings

Meta's net income jumped to $26.8 billion ($10.44 per share), up from $16.6 billion ($6.43 per share) a year earlier. Inside that figure was an $8.03 billion income tax benefit tied to the Trump administration's tax and spending bill. Without that benefit, EPS would have been $3.13 lower.

Q2 revenue guidance came in roughly in line, with Meta projecting $58 billion to $61 billion versus a $59.5 billion estimate.

Worth Noting

Meta said its multiple youth-safety legal cases "may ultimately result in a material loss." The company suffered two trial losses in March on related issues. It also confirmed plans to lay off about 10% of its workforce, or 8,000 employees, while cutting 6,000 unfilled roles. The next data point is the Q2 capex print, where investors will check whether the new full-year range actually translates into spending.

Disclosure

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