Poland's Monetary Policy Council held the line at 3.75% on Wednesday, marking half a year without a move. That outcome was universally anticipated by the 34 economists Bloomberg surveyed, and the zloty barely budged against the euro after the decision.
Like many countries that buy their energy abroad, Poland is feeling the pinch from higher oil and gas. With the Middle East conflict still squeezing global supply, price pressures have accelerated. In August, headline inflation rose to 3.4%, the strongest reading since mid‑2023 and brushing the upper limit of the central bank's tolerance band. Those figures, alongside faster‑than‑expected growth in Poland's roughly $1 trillion economy, erased market bets for a September rate cut that Glapinski had teased earlier in the summer.
After the meeting, the MPC said upcoming data will guide its choices, and that the global backdrop - especially inflation and commodity price trends - is "particularly important" amid ongoing geopolitical strains. A news conference with Adam Glapinski is set for Thursday at 3 p.m.
Views on what happens next diverge. "The MPC went on vacation in a dovish mood, and when they returned they faced a pile of news and data ruling out rate cuts," the note from a team at Bank Pekao SA headed by Ernest Pytlarczyk said. Pekao expects rates to stay unchanged through the end of next year.
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Others see different paths given uncertainty around the Iran conflict and its impact on European energy costs: Bank Pocztowy SA's chief economist Monika Kurtek anticipates no move before the latter half of 2027, at which point cuts may commence, while Credit Agricole Bank Polska SA's Jakub Borowski projects a 0.25‑point increase in the fourth quarter of 2026. A week ago, speaking to Bloomberg News, MPC member Iwona Duda said she expects no adjustment for at least the rest of this year. Derivatives pricing points to wagers on tightening over the coming quarters.
Rates stuck in neutral tell you the inflation fight is not over, and energy is still the wildcard. If fuel costs stay elevated, inflation could run closer to the top of the target and keep policy tighter than markets hoped. That backdrop tends to ripple into borrowing costs, savings rates, and currency moves in the months ahead.
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