Russia's August crude production averaged 8.718 million barrels per day, per OPEC's monthly report using secondary data. That was 160,000 barrels a day lower than the revised July figure, marking the biggest month to month fall since the slide started in December. For the month, Moscow's production also sat 1.17 million barrels a day under its OPEC+ commitment.
What changed on the ground: Ukraine has intensified strikes on Russia's energy infrastructure, and the pressure is showing up in the output data.
Kyiv stepped up attacks on refineries and crude export routes in both the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea. The combination forced refiners to cut throughput and left the country's biggest oil firms unable to channel crude to export flows. A Bloomberg count of public statements from both sides shows Ukrainian forces struck refineries at least 22 times in August.
Ukraine also went after vessels and infrastructure at Russia's southern ports last month, zeroing in on Novorossiysk, a key Black Sea hub for crude shipments.
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Officials now expect national oil output this year to come in below an earlier forecast, reflecting weaker crude processing. Even so, Alexander Novak, the Deputy Prime Minister, said last week the drop should be short lived, with production picking up as refineries return and conditions settle.
For your wallet, the story to track is simple: whether refinery restarts stick and whether port strikes persist. Those two levers will shape Russia's supply and its OPEC+ compliance, both of which global energy markets watch closely.
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