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Stocks Little Moved As Inflation Cools To Start The Year

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Published Feb 13, 2026
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Stacked coins, a basket of groceries, and a thermometer in an ice bucket with a downward arrow symbolize falling inflation and its impact on food prices, money, and even stocks.
Summary:
  • Inflation beat expectations. Overall prices rose 2.4% over the year, the slowest pace since May and below the 2.5% forecast.
  • Energy drove the decline. Gasoline and fuel oil prices dropped sharply in January, pulling the headline number down.
  • But some categories heated up. Core inflation actually accelerated, with food, shelter, and restaurant prices still climbing steadily.

Inflation cooled in January, but other parts of the economy actually heated up.

Why does it matter? The Fed will have it's eyes on inflation as it looks to make another interest rate decision soon.

Interest rates impact borrowing like mortgages, auto loans, credit cards, and more.

Markets ended the day mostly flat, as investors put their focus on tech and AI spending.

The Big Picture

Overall prices climbed 2.4% over the past year, beating Wall Street's 2.5% forecast. That's the slowest pace since May and down from December's 2.7%.

Monthly inflation rose just 0.2%, also better than expected.

Where Things Cooled

Energy Prices dropped 1.5% in January.

  • Gasoline fell 3.2%.
  • Fuel oil plunged 5.7%.

Energy commodities overall? Down 3.3%.

Used cars dropped 1.8% for the month.

Over the year, they're down 2%.

These declines pulled the overall number lower.

Where Pressure Built

Not everything is cooling off.

Food prices jumped 0.2% monthly and are up 2.9% annually.

Food away from home climbed 0.2% - that's restaurant meals getting pricier, up 4% over the year.

Shelter costs? Still rising. Up 0.2% for the month and 3% annually.

That's more than a third of the entire inflation index.

And here's the kicker: core inflation - which strips out food and energy - actually accelerated to 0.3% monthly, a five-month high.

What It Means

The headline number looks great. Underneath, prices are sticky in categories people feel most: rent, food, dining out.

Energy saved the report. Without falling gas prices, this would've looked very different.

The Fed's watching - Their 2% target is close, but not quite there.

And if energy prices bounce back, the progress could stall.

For now, inflation's trending the right direction. Just not everywhere.

Disclosure

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