Time's running out. President Trump gave Iran a hard deadline on April 6: reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday 8PM ET or face military strikes. Oil jumped to $115 per barrel.
"The entire country can be taken out in one night," Trump said. When a president puts a time stamp on a war threat, markets price in the worst case.
Behind the scenes, Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey are pushing a 45-day ceasefire. Pakistan's army chief was on the phone all night with VP Vance, envoy Witkoff, and Iran's Foreign Minister.
That effort suggests someone thinks a deal works.
Iran disagrees. They want a permanent end to the war plus instant relief from money freezes. The two sides are nowhere close on what "deal" means.
Over 3,400 people died across the Middle East since fighting started. 1,900 in Iran, 1,400 in Lebanon, dozens in Israel, 13 US soldiers. This isn't a small fight anymore - it's a real regional war.
The Strait of Hormuz moves 21% of world oil. Right now, only 62 ships crossed through it since March 15. That's not a trade route - that's a blockade.
Tuesday 8PM ET is the key moment. If Iran backs down and opens the Strait, markets rally on relief. If Trump acts, oil spikes above $120 and the world economy gets much worse.
Japan and Korea stocks rose on ceasefire talk - that's where Wall Street hopes things go. The next 48 hours shapes the rest of 2026.
