UBS estimates that Swiss companies stand to see up to $2 billion flow back from US customs bills after the Supreme Court struck down the tariff system first put in place by President Donald Trump. The most substantial pool relates to shipments sent from April 2025 through February 2026, with watches and medical and precision instruments at the forefront. Most of what is left relates to coffee, machinery and electrical equipment.
There is a catch. UBS notes the money is formally paid to importers, so exporters might not capture the full benefit. Tariffs have weighed on Swiss firms, especially watchmakers. UBS pointed to Swatch and private equity owned Breitling as examples of companies that started reviewing how to recoup customs duties they had already paid.
UBS expects headline US tariff rates on Switzerland to move up to 15% from 12.5%, reflecting the framework trade deal the two countries reached in November. The real bite is smaller, though. Effective levies are around 6% because pharmaceuticals, Switzerland's largest export, are largely excluded.
UBS analysts said Switzerland's strong 1.5% second quarter growth likely overstates the economy's true momentum, even if conditions are improving. "That seems somewhat exaggerated and not fully reflecting reality," said Alessandro Bee. "But we are seeing signs of a recovery." Looking to 2027, UBS expects unemployment to fall and inflation to stay below 1%.
The bank anticipates the Swiss National Bank will make its first interest rate hike around the middle of the year, while warning that policymakers could start earlier. Officials are set to announce the year's third interest-rate decision later this month.
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If you buy Swiss-made goods or invest in companies that rely on them, watch how much of these refunds actually filter back to manufacturers versus staying with US importers. The final split, plus where tariffs settle, will shape pricing power for brands you know and the margins behind them.
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