Job openings nudged higher to 7.27 million in July, per Tuesday's Bureau of Labor Statistics report, following a downward revision to 7.18 million for June. That came in just short of the 7.31 million economists projected in a Bloomberg survey. The ratio of vacancies to unemployed workers clocked in at roughly 1.1.
Gains were concentrated in manufacturing, in state and local government outside of education, and in healthcare and social assistance. Manufacturing vacancies reached their highest level since December 2023, while openings in leisure and hospitality slipped to the lowest level since 2021.
The labor market is still moving in a low-hiring, low-firing lane. With geopolitical uncertainty and persistent inflation in the backdrop, employers are careful about adding staff and also slow to cut people loose. Layoffs fell to the lowest since January, and the share of workers voluntarily leaving jobs edged down to 1.9%. Manufacturing layoffs fell to a trough not seen in over five years. Initial unemployment insurance claims stayed low in July, even with splashy job-cut headlines from Visa Inc., Uber Technologies Inc., and Microsoft Corp.
Speaking at Jackson Hole on Aug. 28, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said the labor market was "quite stable" and "consistent with full employment," and he linked today's relatively low churn to "significant rematching between employers and employees that happened at scale in the post-pandemic environment." Policymakers often track the openings-to-unemployed ratio as a read on the balance of labor supply and demand.
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Next up is Friday's monthly jobs report, and economists anticipate a 55,000 increase in August payrolls following July's loss of 23,000 positions by employers. For workers and job seekers, the picture points to steadier conditions with fewer dismissals and slower turnover, which can shape how quickly openings appear and how long they stick around.
